The 4th Quarter Oregon Economic Forecast produced by the California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting was released today.
·The next few quarters are likely to feel like a recession. Job growth will be negative for several quarters, only turning positive late next year. Unemployment will remain elevated throughout the forecast horizon.
·Oregon’s recovery, the recovery that’s not quite a recovery, continues, but at an agonizingly slow pace. Jobs are probably the most distressing economic indicator.
·Oregon’s economic doldrums are largely a result of an anemic national recovery and the uncertainty associated with the Middle East and Europe. Still-weak real estate markets nationwide and California’s persistent sub-par performance also contribute to the stagnation.
· Real estate markets remain depressed. Prices may not have reached bottom yet. Foreclosures and delinquency remain high, and demand remains very soft. It is not surprising that new construction is almost nonexistent in this market.
Contact CERF Executive Director Bill Watkins at (805) 705-5568.
Presentation: CERF Executive Director Bill Watkins will present the report from 5 to 7 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 27, at the Oxford Hotel at 10 NW Minnesota Ave. in Bend, Ore. Media are welcome. RSVP to Karin Grennan at firstname.lastname@example.org <mailto:email@example.com> .
Background: CERF provides local, state and national forecasts for government, business and nonprofit leaders throughout the country.
For more information, go to http://oregon.clucerf.org.