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Unemployment & How it Affects Finding Workers
Employment, and unemployment, have been on the forefront of the minds of business owners and prospective workers since the most recent recession, spurred by the COVID-19 Pandemic. When looking at the numbers, what is Bend’s unemployment like? And how does it affect the hiring process?
According to Nicole Ramos, a regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, “When discussing unemployment as a concern, it’s important to first clarify what we mean by ‘issue.’ If we focus solely on the number of unemployed individuals, we observe a modest increase since April 2023. While this trend might be seen as problematic by some, it could be viewed differently by businesses struggling to find workers. An increase in unemployment could potentially provide them with a larger pool of candidates.
This is backed up by the opinion of EDCO, a nonprofit that focuses on the economic development of the region. According to the group’s CEO Jon Stark, “Simply put, higher unemployment rates can be welcome news for employers who are fatigued by finding and retaining talent.”
That being said, Bend does not have particularly high rates of unemployment. According to Ramos, “When we factor in the growing number of people in the labor market, we get a better measure of the impact unemployment has on a community because it accounts for both the availability of job seekers and the overall health of the job market. This approach gives us the unemployment rate. In our region, county-level unemployment rates have remained relatively low since the COVID-19 recession. Employment rebounded quickly after the pandemic, and job numbers are currently at or near historic highs across counties.”
While unemployment isn’t skyrocketing like it used to, EDCO has reported that many local businesses have had to adjust their hiring practices in order to attract and maintain workers.
“Locally, EDCO has seen companies rethink their hiring and onboarding processes, make investments in new equipment that increase efficiency and redistribute workloads through process improvements,” Stark said.
The unemployment rate creates a bit of a balancing act for local businesses looking to hire, and for potential employees.
According to Ramos, A low unemployment rate indicates that many people are successfully finding jobs, which generally suggests a healthy job market. However, this can present challenges for businesses struggling to find employees, as low unemployment often means workers have more bargaining power. For businesses, a low unemployment rate can result in a smaller pool of available candidates, especially when considering factors such as job type, industry and location.
On the contrary, a high unemployment rate provides employers with more bargaining power, often leading to lower wages for workers, as there is a larger pool of available candidates to choose from. However, this situation also means that individuals face greater difficulty finding employment, which can force them to accept lower wages when they do secure a job. This would be problematic for our communities, and typically reflects the patterns seen during recessions, where higher unemployment rates correlate with economic hardship for communities and can lead to reduced wage levels.
Ramos mentioned that, while unemployment is at nearly a record low, not every industry has recovered so quickly after the pandemic.
“While some sectors have fully recovered and even surpassed their pre-pandemic employment levels, others have not fared as well,” she said. “For example, in Deschutes County, employment in private education and health services has increased by approximately 18 percent compared to July 2019. In contrast, the retail trade industry has struggled to maintain pre-pandemic employment numbers and currently employs about 200 fewer people than it did in 2019. These disparities can be even more pronounced in other areas, such as Crook County, where industry-specific recovery rates may vary significantly.”
Not only has unemployment changed, but the way we hire and maintain workers has also quickly evolved since the pandemic. According to Stark, “While the quality of life continues to be a competitive advantage for Central Oregon, employers have still had to increase wages, review their benefit packages, and in some cases, automate to remain competitive amid the landscape of rising inflation, low unemployment rates and the ongoing challenges related to the cost of living.”
For businesses who are still struggling to hire and maintain a workforce, Ramos has some advice in the form of three steps: Reevaluate requirements, assess the offer and optimize your job posting.
Reassess what levels of education are necessary to perform the functions of the position. Broadening the educational criteria can open up the candidate pool to individuals who have the necessary skills but have different educational backgrounds.
Ask if the experience required is truly essential for the role. In Oregon, approximately 47 percent of unemployed individuals are either new to the workforce or reentering after an absence, according to Ramos.
Next, assess the offer. Is the offered wage and benefits package competitive, and will it realistically make an employee want to stay for the long term? Does the employee have a chance to grow and move up?
Now, optimize that job posting. Ramos said, “Location is key. Utilize various job boards, social media, and industry-specific sites to maximize visibility. Review your job descriptions to make sure they are clear, engaging, and accurately reflect the role. Highlighting the key responsibilities, required skills, and opportunities for growth can attract the right candidates. Reassess the minimum requirements listed in your job postings. Sometimes, overly restrictive criteria can deter potential candidates who might be a great fit for the role with a bit of additional training.”
In EDCO specifically, there is currently work being done to spur positive growth, “EDCO has been coaching traded sector employers and connecting them to resources – one company at a time – for decades. Our personal connection to employers gives us the unique ability to share feedback with workforce partners and identify training programs that can improve hiring outcomes locally. In collaboration with partners like Central Oregon Community College and East Cascade Works, we have reincarnated the Business Response Network to provide coordinated support for Central Oregon employers,” said Stark.
“Additionally, the State of Oregon launched “Future Ready” in 2022 and is in the process of deploying $200 million in funding to support numerous workforce education and training programs and talent development strategies across the state. EDCO is dedicated to working alongside workforce partners to better prepare the emerging workforce and build a local pipeline of talent,” said Stark.
When looking at the future, Ramos still projects growth, even if that varies per industry.
While growth has recently moderated, we still expect an increase in total payroll employment in the region, projected to rise by 11 percent from 2022 to 2032,” she said. “Specific industries are expected to see even more significant growth: the leisure and hospitality industry, for instance, is projected to grow by 18 percent, while both the health care and social assistance sector and the construction industry are projected to grow by 16 percent. Other industries such as the financial activities industry are expected to grow at a much slower pace, with a projected increase of only three percent.”
