In 2014 Central Oregon will likely see moderate growth in most sectors of the economy. The economy is clearly improving and as long as interest rates remain stable or rise very slowly 2014 will be a good year for Central Oregon.
New home building increased rapidly last year and housing prices are also on their way up which is another positive sign, to a point. In this recovery buyers have real skin in the game and real money on the line and loans must meet real underwriting criteria. Those are all good things and important to the stabilization of the housing market but it also means price increases will have a natural limit on the upside.
Central Oregon is seeing more interest from people in the states around us especially California. Central Oregon’s business mix continues to diversify our economy with healthcare, software and manufacturing businesses and employees landing in our great region. I’m generally optimistic at the local level about our opportunity for economic growth.
The legislature provided capital funding for the stand alone university in Bend which we all know as OSU-Cascades. There are many details to work out and more for the legislature to do but the university will strengthen the Central Oregon economy.
I continue to believe that our economy would do even better and recover quicker if the state would trust local government to make regional land use decisions. Citizens elect city councils and county commissions and they appoint a planning commission which begs the question of the state, how many layers of land use and government control do we need? It’s one of the factors that drives up development costs.
The other is not having a 20 year land supply. Those who have land will do well and those who need it are going to pay more for it. Bend has under a two year finished lot supply and that means prices are on the rise for lots and land. If Bend runs out of land before more is added as per state law then it will benefit Redmond and Prineville but generally hurt employment in the region.
Redmond is doing a great job encouraging business to come and expand and Redmond will be stronger for it. Government generally needs to create a level playing field and then get out of the way so the private market can work. There’s more than enough regulation to protect citizens from their new neighbors.
President Obama’s State of the Union speech was bad news for the national economy. After five years as President he either hasn’t figured out how to work in a bi-partisan way or he’s incapable of doing so. Either way it won’t serve the American people or the economy well. What Obama signaled isn’t leadership.
The national debt will drag America down and the economic consequences will be painful if he can’t figure out that we have three branches of government not one. I can’t stress enough that as citizens we must demand sound fiscal policy to have a stable growing economy with family wage jobs. Obamacare and Oregon’s version CoverOregon have been a disaster.
To say people are being helped by Obamacare is like saying people were helped by the sinking of the Titanic. Yes some people lived but without life boats for all the passengers I’m pretty sure the loved ones of the victims didn’t see it as help. Long-term economic growth is impossible with the incredibly high cost of government mandated and controlled healthcare. It’s time for a healthcare solution that comes from the people, not forced by government. 2014 is the make or break year for our economic recovery and healthcare reform.
Tim Knopp is the executive direction of Central Oregon Builders Association and the Oregon State Senator from Bend. timk@coba.org.
