The tune on work has changed a great deal in the last three years. We went from shut downs to defining who is essential to our economy to an explosion in remote work to the most rapid rise in year over year pay rates we have seen. It’s been a whirl wind to say the least, and I’ve had a front row seat to all of it. In this article, I’ll share some observations I have made from a Recruiter’s perspective and highlight what we anticipate is coming next.
Work itself is changing:
Gone are the days of 40-year careers with single companies. Career changes happen as fast as weekends end and we’ve got to get used to seeing people make multiple big pivots over the course of their working life. Infinite content on social media gives us an inside scoop on every type of job, in every kind of company, in any place on Earth. That rapid exposure tends to make everyone feel like they aren’t in a glamorous enough role which causes people to seek greener pastures every 3-5 years. Brand prestige, job titles, and accolades will attract people from disparate industries into the “new hot thing” which causes people to second guess their education, career-to-date accomplishments, and what their friends think of them.
Even the 40-hour work week is being challenged. Fractional work is increasing in demand in places like Bend, Bozeman, and Boulder where lifestyle draws people in. Hundreds of businesses in the US and abroad are testing 4 day works weeks. Low cost of labor countries like the Philippines are becoming home to a work force that tackles the administrative functions necessary to run a business. Needless to say, our old models of thinking about work need some adjustments.
Worth noting, though, is that some things have stayed the same with employment. People want to maximize their own take home pay (duh) and no one wants a bad boss (most people quit their boss, not their job). The “right” employment situation is highly personal and shifts as our lives and priorities changes.
Remote work is in flux for certain groups:
Remote work has existed in some capacity for multiple decades. It was almost exclusively reserved for executives up until the 2010’s, expanded to include technical roles and then was suddenly forced on millions of people at the start of the pandemic. The benefits of higher productivity and more time at home were shouted from every rooftop in the country. The drawback we are starting to see now is a lack of personal connection to co-workers and the work-output. People crave connection and remote work is failing to deliver that (see Maslow’s hierarchy of needs). Not everyone is in this camp though.
In the last few months, I have connected with a dozen Millennial and Gen Z aged folks who are single, ambitious, and looking for ways to level up in their careers. They are opting to leave their isolated, fully remote roles in pursuit of an office where they can get exposure to more team members, make better friends, and get hands on training from management.
The people who are continuing to seek remote work are the ones who aren’t looking for more personal relationships at this stage in their life, have young kids at home or otherwise have a skill set that earns more money working remotely. Demand for remote work will never go away completely, though there are risks to take note of as an employee (and as an employer, but that is a separate topic).
Identifying and Mitigating the Risks to Remote work:
The wave of layoffs we have seen in the news recently has largely affected tech companies whose stock prices dropped late 2022 and early 2023. Hundreds of thousands of people were laid off in a very short period of time, many of whom were remote workers. The risks of remote work boil down to visibility of value, stunted growth potential and the cost-to-value calculation someone is running at the corporate level.
In large companies, everyone who is not in the office is a number on a spread sheet unless they are going out of their way to be noticeably valuable. Someone who is closing large enterprise sales deals or producing 10x code may be obviously valuable and not at risk of being laid off. The rest of a team is less obviously valuable. Minimizing the risk of being laid off as a remote employee requires going out of your way to talk to decision makers and highlight what you’ve done. An occasional Slack message along the lines of “I just did X for Y, curious if there are similar projects for you I can help with” is a simple way to show off what you’re contributing.
As an early career employee, another risk of remote is failing to learn enough to earn promotions. Effectively 0 mangers have been trained to manage remote teams (let alone manage well). Your own professional development may get stunted by a manager who doesn’t see, or doesn’t know to ask what you are not getting exposed to in a remote environment. To minimize this, you can subtly coach your supervisor to pay attention. Send out clear plans for your week, proactively share updates, and be clear about when you have implemented any feedback you have received. Get yourself noticed.
The last big thing you can do to minimize the risk of a remote job being terminated is proactively find ways to drive more revenue or cut costs. Get into the meetings where money is being discussed and learn exactly what levers can be pulled. If a Suit is looking at the cost of employing someone vs the value they bring, it should be clear that the value is worth the money.
What’s Coming Next in Employment:
Bend is challenging community to build long term careers in. We’re 100k people, there are 60k jobs here and an increasing number of people moving here are working for companies based elsewhere (or not working at all). The story line for many local businesses is create a small company, scale it to a certain size, sell it off to a Private Equity firm, lose everything cool about the company, and then watch as employees leave to seek something else not controlled by a Suit. That will continue to happen. Since we’re at risk of losing local businesses to Suits, how do people who want to work make it happen?
The main employment trends we expect to see around Central Oregon are four-fold. Career pivots will accelerate, more fractional solo-preneurs will start businesses, niche technical roles will stay in high demand, and automation consulting will crop up. Let’s unpack each.
For any given profession, say a mechanical engineer, there are limited options locally that give employees the chance at a linear career growth. For an engineer to build a long career in Central Oregon, they will likely have to pivot into some other type of role or industry to secure growth. That might mean pivoting between the aviation industry into automotive and then into biotech.
Solo-preneurs (individuals running their own business) will increase in number. The easy example is a bookkeeper who works part time for multiple businesses. HR, marketing, operations, logistics, finance and nearly every other employment category will see a single person start a fractional, solo business where they can pick and choose how much work to say yes to (and their bill rate).
Niche technical roles, like professional electrical engineers, data center managers, civil designers and CPAs will continue to be in high demand. Those roles take years to develop the skills needed and command higher than average pay rates. Hiring anyone in a technical role will be a challenge in Bend in perpetuity. If you’ve got a technical skill, you’ll be in demand.
Automating administrative tasks inside a company will become its own industry. As the cost of labor goes up, businesses will be motivated to have employees stay focused on the highest impact activities while automating all the work that is not revenue generating. As an employee, the thing you can do to prepare is start learning the new technology platforms that make this possible. Tools like Zapier and ChapGPT can be paired with CRMs and ERPs through APIs to streamline many administrative tasks.
The employment landscape in Bend is a challenge to navigate and will stay in flux indefinitely. As we continue to attract people with money who push out those who work locally for non-livable wages, the specific companies and job opportunities that are on the table will evolve. For specific questions, please feel free to reach out at your convenience.
2214 NE Division St., Ste. 202, Bend
