(Graphs | courtesy of RE/MAX Key Properties)
A Decade of Transformation & the New Reality
Central Oregon stands as a unique anomaly in the West Coast real estate landscape — a geographically isolated mountain region that has captured the imagination and investment of locals and new residents from Washington to California and beyond.
Over the past decade, our high-desert community has transformed from a market recovering from the Great Recession into one of the West’s most dynamic real estate environments, marked by three distinct periods of change.
From the steady growth of the post-recession years through the pandemic’s unprecedented surge and into today’s “new normal,” Bend’s market evolution reflects both national trends and its own distinctive characteristics, with record high prices and annual sales volumes fluctuating dramatically from peaks to current levels.
A detailed analysis of Bend’s single-family residential market, focusing on properties under one acre within city limits and examining rolling 12-month trends, reveals patterns that echo throughout Central Oregon. While similar trends appear in Redmond and other neighboring areas, the primary differentiator remains price point rather than market behavior.
The Foundation Years: 2015-2019
The post-recession period established Bend’s foundation as a premium real estate market, characterized by steady appreciation and balanced conditions. With mortgage rates hovering around 4%, the market maintained a healthy equilibrium of 3-4 months of inventory.
This period saw the early signs of what would become major trends: the rise of remote work, increasing migration from expensive coastal markets, and the impact of urban growth boundary expansions on housing supply. As tech companies began embracing flexible work policies, Bend’s appeal evolved beyond a recreation destination, attracting professionals seeking permanent residence while maintaining their coastal salaries.
The Pandemic Surge: 2020-2022
After a brief pause in early 2020 as the pandemic unfolded, Bend’s real estate market exploded as buyers sought to secure their ideal lifestyle homes. Days on market plunged to a record low of just 5 days, while annual sales volume doubled from recession induced lows. The result was a market where multiple offers became the norm and homes regularly sold above asking price.
This surge was fueled by historic low mortgage rates in the 2% range, making homeownership more viable even as prices rose. The widespread adoption of remote work removed geographic barriers for even more urban professionals, allowing them to maintain income levels while enjoying Bend’s lifestyle advantages.
The New Reality: 2023-2024
The market’s transition to its current state has revealed a new equilibrium defined by higher prices, reduced transaction volume, and a more measured pace of sales. With mortgage rates stabilizing between 6% and 7%, both buyers and sellers have adapted to a market that looks markedly different from either the foundation years or the pandemic surge.
Despite these higher borrowing costs, Bend’s median home price has demonstrated remarkable resilience, reaching new records in recent years in the mid $700,000 range.
This “new normal” presents a more balanced environment where homes typically spend close to one full month on the market. The reduced transaction volume, hovering around 1,700 annual sales, reflects not a lack of demand but rather a recalibration to higher borrowing costs and more selective buying patterns.
Looking Ahead: 2025
As we move into 2025, the return of seasonal patterns provides both buyers and sellers with more reliable timing strategies. While mortgage rates remain the primary lever affecting market activity, their stabilization has allowed market participants to adjust their expectations accordingly. Success in this environment depends less on riding a rising tide and more on understanding micro-market trends, precise pricing strategies, and optimal timing.
Recent changes in real estate industry practices, including new rules around broker compensation and representation, add another layer of complexity to an already evolving market. Now more than ever, navigating hyperlocal conditions and transaction structures requires the guidance of experienced real estate professionals who understand not just pricing and timing, but also the new frameworks for buyer and seller representation.
Bend’s real estate market continues to reflect its unique position as a Western mountain town with unparalleled lifestyle benefits. While the frenzied pace of the pandemic era may be behind us, the fundamental attractions that drive Bend’s market remain unchanged: outstanding outdoor recreation, quality of life, and relative value compared to coastal markets. As we move forward, Bend’s market demonstrates both resilience and adaptability, suggesting a stable and sustainable market environment for the years ahead.
All data from the MLS of Central Oregon. Single Family Detached Homes Under 1 Acre. Each data point is 12 months of activity.
