With Bend’s population set to swell to over 160,000 by 2050, development of a blueprint that will shape the city’s growth for two decades into the future is starting to take shape. The City of Bend’s Growth Management Division is gearing up to work on planning for this project — which will cover the years 2030-2050 — leading to an update of Bend’s current Comprehensive Plan.
Efforts will begin with technical work in 2026, including a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) and will continue with community engagement in 2027. The final update to the Comprehensive Plan will be voted on by the Bend City Council nearer to 2030. The Comprehensive Plan is the city’s primary document for guiding future growth and development over each 20-year timeframe, covering parameters for land use, housing, jobs and infrastructure. It sets goals and policies for how the city will manage its growth and protect its natural and built environments, influencing everything from zoning to transportation and recreation. The plan is periodically updated to ensure it aligns with current and future needs and state requirements.
The planning effort intends to make sure there is enough land for housing, jobs and infrastructure for everyone within Bend’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) — a figurative border around the city that controls how far urban development can grow. This conversation takes place within the context of the latest population forecasts from Portland State University, which estimate that 160,361 people will live in Bend by 2050.
For next year, the focus will be on staff doing technical data work to get started, researching questions like how many housing units may be needed by 2045 to meet state requirements, or assessing what land is developable and for what uses. Concurrently, some public outreach will begin. By the year 2027, public outreach and engagement will increase, offering an optimal time for community members to get involved to give input on how and where Bend should grow. This is also the earliest a conversation will start about land being potentially brought into the UGB.
In the years 2028-2029 more community engagement will take place. This timeframe will also likely be when the Bend City Council starts making key decisions related to the growth plan. “A major focus of the exercise is to prioritize community engagement,” said Brian Rankin, senior strategist for the City of Bend. “We are hoping to do a better job this time around regarding getting about in the community and gaining feedback on what people hope for in the plan. This will include events, education materials, surveys, focus groups and new ways to involve people in the discussion. We want to work with as many neighborhoods as possible in Bend and shift more meetings to outreach, as well as those held at City Hall. It is an exciting challenge and we want to welcome everyone into the conversation in trying to shape how Bend will grow. Members of the community want and deserve to be included in these deliberations.”
Other deliverables are to include identifying land needs and how to grow, development of a Transportation System Plan (TSP), a community climate action plan (CCAP), and potential changes to water and sewer infrastructure through a Public Facilities Plan (PFP). Bend’s growth rate is actually slowing compared to recent history but we do our best to plan for the future while adjusting and reacting to current circumstances,” Rankin added. “The idea is to create coordination and move forward with a shared vision, while allowing for flexibility as changes may occur. We should have a new land use pattern and changes to the UGB by 2029.”
A Housing Capacity Analysis carried out in 2023 to understand the current status and assess the need for potential land for housing, came up with 240 to 700 residential acres, on top of infill redevelopment inside the UGB. The City is also looking at land to support economic development, including accommodating target industries such as: recreation and tourism; health systems; industries involved in building for growth (such as architectural and engineering residential and commercial construction), and emerging technology and innovation businesses, including aerospace and high-tech manufacturing.
Steps will focus on determining land need and capacity, assessing options for meeting any additional need (including whether to expand the Urban Growth Boundary), and adopting a Transportation System Plan (TSP) that reflects the chosen land-use outcomes. Rankin said the growth-plan work must satisfy several new state-level requirements — including the Oregon Housing Needs Assessment and the Climate-Friendly and Equitable Communities rules — and that the project will incorporate equity and engagement activities throughout.
Rankin said the City expects to identify both infill opportunities inside the existing Urban Growth Boundary and options for an expansion if the housing-capacity analysis shows an unmet need. He also said the work will feed long-term transportation and utility planning and that the city must coordinate with Deschutes County and other agencies for any UGB change.
Expansion often favors areas with less topographical challenges and where it may be easier to access existing infrastructure. Beyond the 20-year plan, the city may then consider creating an Urban Area Reserve (UAR) for potential logical growth areas to provide more certainty where the city will grow in the longer term and influence policy.
Rankin said current steps include work evaluating options for putting a consultant team under contract by early 2026, with more formal work starting soon after. He described technical tasks the team will undertake including a buildable lands inventory, a housing-need analysis, an employment/industrial land analysis and integrated transportation modeling. Rankin also highlighted new state requirements that require ongoing monitoring of outcomes such as housing production and equity metrics.
Staff is drafting the consultant RFP and will return to council with a contract request by the end of the year. Rankin described several public-facing deliverables that will be considered in packages and said the city will host outreach events and online open houses during the analysis phases. Unlike most states, the State of Oregon requires cities to make room and plan for future population and employment growth within an urban growth boundary (UGB). A UGB acts as an invisible boundary around a city protecting farm and forest lands. State law provides two main ways for a city to make room for future population and employment growth: growing up through taller and more dense development closer to the core of the city, and growing out, focusing on expanding the UGB, which is the main way cities in Oregon can add land to their boundary.
Expansion provides land for additional housing, employment opportunities and complete communities. It can also create a wider variety of uses over time to have more convenient and enjoyable neighborhoods. Planning for the future includes thoughtfully considering how and where housing will be built in relation to other amenities. Complete communities have varied housing options and many of the essential amenities needed for daily living. These include schools, parks and open spaces, shops and services, all within a convenient walking or biking distance.
Growth also means making sure plans encourage and accommodate creating new jobs to support a larger population. Rankin said currently the City is planning to have enough space for more than 60,000 jobs in Bend by 2028.
A recent target sectors report examined economic trends (national, state and local) and identified which industries and sectors are more concentrated in Bend and growing more than national and state averages. The goal was to identify these sectors before beginning work on a new economic opportunities analysis (EOA) in 2026. An EOA is an evaluation of Bend’s land supply for employment — land for commercial, industrial and mixed and public facility uses for all economic sectors that maintain, support and grow a diverse economy.
