(Graphics courtesy of EDCO and Oregon Employment Department)
As we look ahead to 2025, it’s natural to encounter some skepticism and uncertainty given the many unknowns in our economic landscape. However, we can choose to view this as an opportunity for growth and innovation. We are honored Cascade Business News (CBN) has yet again provided the opportunity to share our perspective with the Central Oregon Community. But first, let’s review what we shared last year.
We suggested that some rebalancing of the labor market might occur, and there would be a strong potential for capital investment, especially in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors. While migration trends remained uncertain, we expected the region would benefit from a moderated inflation rate, increased productivity and an anticipated decline in interest rates. These factors would support ongoing business expansion and enhance economic resilience.
Interest rate reductions have been modest, while several rapidly growing companies in technology, science and advanced manufacturing — together representing half of EDCO’s 2024 project list shown in the chart to the left — have either scaled or expanded their operations. Companies such as BASX, Entwyne, i3D, Nosler, Platformr, Rock Tough, and Serán Bioscience have all increased their activities. Although migration to Central Oregon is happening, it is occurring at a slower pace than in previous years. That said, it still outpaces migration in other parts of Oregon.
As we look ahead to 2025, several new factors will shape our economy. One of the most significant is the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Many are optimistic about President Trump’s agenda. In contrast, others fear that new tariffs or immigration reform may lead to further inflation, which could increase our national debt limit.
While the Federal Reserve has managed to bring inflation rates down to just under 3%, this figure still falls short of their target of 2%. The U.S. job market is anticipated to experience more layoffs in 2025, following announcements Boeing, Amazon, Spirit Airlines, Intel, and Nike made late last year. However, as reported in Newsweek in early January, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits has actually declined.
Importantly, there are predictions of further interest rate reductions in the upcoming year; however, when and how much remains an unknown to any prognosticator. Dr. Bill Conerly authored a Forbes article predicting a continued downward trend in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth over the next four quarters, as noted in the graph to the right, despite the rise in consumer spending. These and other factors, such as lower fuel prices and reduced costs of goods, are expected to positively influence the economic landscape in Central Oregon over the next 11 months. We don’t believe there is a business owner in Central Oregon who would disagree; business is just more difficult and requires more hours, real-time decision-making and tenacity to be successful than in pre-pandemic years.
What’s in store for us in 2025? If our pending list of business development projects is any indication of future jobs and investment in the high desert, one would have comfort in what lies ahead. Contrary to the Forbes forecast, EDCO’s project list has been trending upward in all categories, featuring 12 more projects than last year. This represents a 22% increase in potential job creation, amounting to 4,280 jobs, and a 12% increase in possible capital investment, with $4.2 billion on the table for Central Oregon.
Like last year, these projects are dominated by advanced manufacturing, high technology, lifestyle, and scientific product companies. The key question is how many of these opportunities we can turn into reality. Notably, as indicated in the pie chart to the right, the pipeline is dominated by “Start and Grow” projects, primarily driven by “Start” projects, which tend to have a significantly higher completion rate than “Move” projects. It is evident that when national economies are on a downward trend, as indicated by GDP forecasts, it sparks entrepreneurship. During these times, individuals are motivated to take control of their futures rather than having their paths dictated by external circumstances.
The region should see persistent demand for healthcare, housing, vehicles and recreation, and the need for workers to support those activities. Central Oregon will continue experiencing positive population growth as new residents relocate to the area. However, smaller communities such as La Pine — identified as the second fastest-growing community in 2023 by Portland State University — along with Madras, Terrebonne and Redmond, may see a higher percentage of population growth compared to Bend. This trend is driven by individuals moving to communities with a lower cost of living.
Population growth will likely be at a slower pace than we saw in 2024, and will impact the job market. As of November 2024, the net non-farm job growth for the tri-county region reached 4,300 jobs, which is lower than the previous year’s total of 5,520. The primary drivers of this growth were the private education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors. There were also smaller gains in manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, as illustrated in the Deschutes County graph at left. Losses occurred predominantly in the construction and financial activities industries and were directly influenced by interest rates and inflation. While those results will likely underperform compared to last year, we anticipate net job gains of several thousand in the new year.
The 2025 economic outlook reflects nuances absent in 2024, particularly the presidential election, better clarity on inflation, fuel prices, and world conflicts. The region stands poised for sustained growth, however at lower trajectories than we’ve seen in the booming years of the 2010s and the inflated post-pandemic period. To provide further perspectives, EDCO’s Local Area Directors have provided a highlight of what they are seeing in their respective communities.
Insights from the Field
EDCO Venture Catalyst Director, Brian Vierra
In tandem with EDCO’s Local Area Directors, who represent a city, group of cities or county within Central Oregon, EDCO’s Venture Catalyst Director provides support for startup businesses across Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson Counties. Currently, EDCO is working with 85 startup companies, spanning industries from high-tech to consumer products, and projects including completion a prototypes, fundraising assistance and bringing products to market.
The 2024 Bend Venture Conference (BVC) received 85 applications from startups to present. EDCO is looking to build on this momentum and grow the impact of the conference by continuing to collaborate with ecosystem partners to put on a week of innovation and entrepreneurship activities in 2025, appropriately named High Desert Innovation Week.
As anticipated, 2024 saw a significant slowdown in funding across the landscape. But by the end of the year, there were signs of an uptick. It looks like the funding landscape bottomed in Q3 2024 and should pick up and accelerate into 2025. As such, EDCO is more focused than ever on providing support for entrepreneurs through connections with experts and mentors in the community, exposure through BVC and monthly PubTalk programming, and introductions to financing opportunities. EDCO will continue collaborating with local partners to drive diversified industry growth and increase the number of Central Oregon startups that achieve long-term success.
Bend Area Director, Don Myll
Bend’s national prominence continues to rise, bolstered by a thriving economy. According to the Milken Institute’s January 2025 report, “2025 Best-Performing Cities: Mapping Economic Growth across the U.S,” the Bend-Redmond MSA climbed to the #4 spot, up two places from last year. This success was driven by the region’s portfolio of diversified and expanding companies, led by the bioscience and aviation industries. Looking forward, Bend’s vibrant economy is on track to continue recent trends as EDCO’s current Move and Grow projects are projected to generate $300 million in capital investment and create 600 well-paying jobs in the near future.
In 2025, development is set to commence on 98 acres of industrial land in Juniper Ridge, located at the northern edge of the city. This long-anticipated project will provide much-needed industrial space to support the growth of local companies, startups and businesses relocating to Bend. Additionally, construction has begun on an air traffic control tower at the Bend Municipal Airport, Oregon’s third-busiest airport. This new infrastructure will enhance the airport’s vital role in the local economy by supporting general aviation and aviation manufacturers, including Epic Aircraft. One of Bend’s fastest-growing companies, Epic Aircraft, was recognized in 2024 as producing the “Coolest Thing Made in Oregon” for its E1000 GX model airplane. It was also honored in 2023 as “Oregon Manufacturer of the Year” for its innovative product design and manufacturing processes.
Efforts to address the region’s housing shortage have also intensified. Recent state legislation enabling immediate expansion to Bend’s Urban Growth Boundary for housing has been implemented, adding 91 acres of residential land that will accommodate more than 700 dwellings over the next few years. The City of Bend has also fueled additional momentum for building more affordable housing and supporting local job growth by offering new incentives that became effective in January 2025.
Jefferson County Director, Brenna Fulks
As a gateway to Central Oregon, Jefferson County is poised for significant economic growth. Two significant projects, expected to generate 52 jobs and involve a potential combined capital investment of $37 million, are currently underway. Additionally, EDCO is actively supporting two other projects in their growth phase.
October marked an exciting milestone for Jefferson County with the reinstatement of the EDCO Jefferson County Program. While EDCO has been actively involved in various community projects, this renewed focus, buoyed by a dedicated staff position, signifies a commitment to Jefferson County’s economic growth. The program’s relaunch coincides with increased development activity across the county. Moving forward, the program, in collaboration with its newly formed advisory board, will play a crucial role in supporting businesses, influencing the overall business climate and fostering a thriving economy within Jefferson County.
In terms of “table setting” efforts, the third quarter of 2024 saw the consideration to expand the City’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). This joint effort by the City of Madras and Jefferson County would annex and zone 198 acres near the Madras Airport. This annexation is a key component of the “Large Lot Industrial Program,” a regional initiative to increase the availability of large, contiguous plots of land for industrial development. These large lots aim to attract high-growth industries such as high-tech and clean-tech manufacturing, advanced manufacturing and assembly, and data centers.
The City of Madras recently secured funding from Business Oregon to update its Industrial Site Readiness Plan, which will specifically consider the infrastructure needs of high-growth industries. The update will also ensure the plan aligns with emerging industry clusters and addresses the evolving needs of businesses.
The cities of Metolius and Culver are engaged in economic development efforts as they grow. Both cities are exploring avenues to foster economic growth and enhance their local economies.
Redmond Economic Development Inc. (REDI) Director, Steve Curley
Redmond is set for continued economic growth in 2025, driven by key infrastructure projects, business expansion and workforce development.
Infrastructure & Business Growth: The Eastside Arterial Project will improve connectivity from 19th Street, featuring roundabouts and upgraded roads such as Ninth Street and Antler Avenue. This initiative will enhance access to the Redmond Airport and support regional business expansion.
Industrial growth remains strong, with flex-space projects in development to address low vacancy rates. The availability of land continues to attract businesses and new projects in the pipeline to support long-term expansion.
Economic Initiatives: REDI is actively fostering business investment and job creation, helping to diversify the economy. Nineteen projects in the pipeline are expected to create over 2,500 jobs in the next five to ten years, with a total capital investment exceeding $764 million. Several projects are currently under construction, with more set to break ground in the coming months.
Workforce Development: Central Oregon Community College (COCC) is revamping its Career Technical Education programming and planning an expansion of the Manufacturing and Applied Technology Center (MATC) in the coming years. Local employer response has been positive, and this expansion is expected to enhance workforce development efforts in the region.
Outlook for 2025: With infrastructure upgrades, industrial expansion and workforce development initiatives, Redmond is well-positioned for economic success in 2025. The city’s strategic planning and investment in key sectors ensure sustained growth, new business opportunities and a thriving job market.
Sisters Area Director, Eric Strobel
Happy new year from Sisters country. There’s a lot going on in this small town! Sisters continues to add light industrial space with four new buildings totaling nearly 50,000 square feet scheduled for completion in the next few years.
BASX is expanding into Sisters, leasing 27,000 square feet and adding 25 jobs to assemble surgical clean rooms. Personalized Nutrients will move into its new 16,000-square-foot building in April and continue to lease one of the former Laird Superfood buildings. The ClearPine building, a new 12,000-square-foot office building, still has space available, perfect for a headquarters or technology company. The Sisters Ranger District’s new 13,500-square-foot headquarters is nearing completion.
Workforce housing projects are being planned, including Trinity Place, a new 40-apartment complex focusing on individuals in the local workforce living in the 50%-80% Area Median Income (AMI) range. Habitat for Humanity’s Adams Commons project is near downtown and will bring 19 affordable homes (targeting households under 80% AMI) and six workforce homes (81-120% AMI). When completed, homes in the Sisters Woodlands development will provide 10 dwellings available to households not exceeding 60% AMI.
The new Sisters Makers organization has a mission to empower artists, makers, growers, and innovators through facilities, education and advocacy. They provide affordable space for small businesses, offer entrepreneur boot camps and business classes, and create a community space for organizations to meet and hold events. Sisters Makers, Sisters Farmers Market and Explore Sisters partner on the use of the city-owned building.
Sisters has applied for certification as an International Dark Sky Community through the DarkSky International. This certification aims to reduce light pollution and preserve the night sky for astronomical observation and enjoyment. Benefits of certification include increased tourism to the community (astro-tourism) and increased public education about the importance of preserving the dark skies (while still providing ample opportunities for adequate lighting for safety). If certified, Sisters will be the largest city in Oregon to hold an International Dark Skies certification. Explore Sisters, Sisters Astronomy Club and Sisters High School Astronomy Club assisted the city with the application.
The Sisters Country Economic Development advisory board has been meeting monthly and completed a three-year strategic plan through 2027. The SCED board, City of Sisters, business organizations, and Explore Sisters will work diligently in 2025 to make Sisters a desirable place to do business.
Prineville / Crook County Area Director, Kelsey Lucas
Prineville continues to solidify its position as a growing economic hub in Central Oregon. Building on the momentum of 2024, the city is poised for further growth and development in 2025. Prineville has several projects in the pipeline and currently underway, totaling over $2.55 billion in capital investment and creating an estimated 452 new jobs. The development of small industrial parcels continued this year, specifically in the Tom McCall Industrial Park, with significant leasing activity in speculative industrial buildings. Since the pandemic, Crook County has experienced significant growth, with the population increasing by approximately 9% and the workforce by 12%. Even more remarkably, Crook County wages have surged, achieving the highest growth rate in the state with an astonishing increase of over 80% in the past five years, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
EDCO continues to work with the City of Prineville and the Center on Rural Innovation to develop the Crooked River Innovation Collective (CRIC), emphasizing the development of a robust rural entrepreneurial ecosystem and a skilled workforce. 2025 will likely see an increased emphasis on collaboration with Oregon State University — Cascades’ regional Innovation Hub and workforce development initiatives in general to ensure a skilled and adaptable workforce to meet the demands of early-stage and growing businesses. This may include programs focused on upskilling existing employees and attracting and retaining talent through statewide avenues.
Resource sustainability is likely to become an increasingly important factor in economic development. Initiatives focused on environmental stewardship, renewable energy and sustainable business practices are expected to continue to gain traction. Prineville is also tapping into its stunning natural resources and Americana charm to further its tourism sector. Through the newly launched ‘Explore Prineville’ initiative by the Prineville-Crook County Chamber of Commerce, the city is inviting visitors to discover rural outdoor adventures and immerse themselves in authentic cultural experiences.
As the economy grows, addressing the challenges of housing affordability will be crucial to attracting and retaining a skilled workforce. There are over 700 planned units in 2025 to help sustain the growth and affordability of housing options. The City of Prineville and Crook County remain proactive in balancing economic growth with environmental protection and community character.
Sunriver / La Pine Director, Patricia Lucas
South Deschutes County has grown at a rate of 24.4% from 2020-2023 as reported in the Population Estimate Reports | Portland State University population projection information for 2023. La Pine is seeing robust growth in new development of single and multi-family units. The community has completed a $50 million water and wastewater expansion project that will serve an additional 1,500 homes and commercial businesses. This critical infrastructure will serve La Pine well in helping businesses move, start and grow in the area.
The Sunriver/La Pine Economic Development (SLED) Program has been working with developers to create more industrial space available for potential traded sector businesses with the goal of bringing more family wage jobs and capital investment to South Deschutes County. Of the nine projects in the pending project pipeline, seven represent new businesses moving to the area, constructing at least 58,300 square feet in new space, resulting in investments of over $65 million.
La Pine will embark upon a small business incubator project in 2025 that will accommodate 3-5 traded sector businesses. This project will target businesses that may lack the necessary management, technical and financial capacity to run effectively. Resources will be tailored to each to assist them in being more successful. Additionally, there are two speculative buildings planned for the area. Leasable tenant space has been a high priority for the SLED program since its inception in 2014.
Sunriver and La Pine are especially alluring with the distinction of having readily available developable land competitively priced at $1.75/square foot with water, sewer, electric, gas, and broadband infrastructure in place.
