As it does every month, the National Federation of Independent Business, a national small business organization, released its Index of Small Business Optimism, which measures the pulse of the nation’s largest employer group—Main Street entrepreneurs. Oregon State NFIB Director Jan Meekcoms sees a full frontal assault in the list of legislation and priorities presented in December’s pre-session work days.
The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data since 1974, originally publishing them quarterly and then monthly, since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. For 41 years, NFIB’s Index of Small Business Optimism has been one of the nation’s bellwether economic barometers, used by the Federal Reserve, congressional leaders, presidential administrations, and state legislators and governors. NFIB has 350,000 dues-paying members across the nation, including 7,500 in Oregon.
“The Index showed some strength in November but most of the gains were confined to just two categories,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The December Index shows much broader strength led by a significant increase in sales expectations. This could be a breakout for small business. There’s no question that small-business owners are feeling better about the economy. If they continue to feel that way, 2015 could be a very good year.”
But Meekcoms sounded a cautionary note. “Our Optimism Index is a national survey and is not broken down by state, which saves Oregon a little embarrassment. Our unemployment rate has been above the national average for more than a decade; our poverty rate is above the national average; we have the fifth highest amount of food stamp recipients in the nation and our cost-of-housing-to-income ratio is very high. And after looking at the job-threatening, economy-strangling legislative agenda for this session, I can guarantee you Oregon’s small businesses are not jumping for joy. Too bad, with gas prices trending lower, this would have been an excellent time to give Oregon small businesses some real traction out of the lingering effects from the Great Recession. Glad to read others in the nation have a more positive outlook, however.”
Meekcom listed the following sampling of legislation being presented:
1. Mandated paid sick leave for all employers regardless of business size. Seven days per year to start accumulating on the first day of work at one hour paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked whether a full-time or a part-time employee. Places where such a mandate has gone into effect have seen loss of jobs, loss of employee benefits in exchange for paid sick leave, and employees still coming to work sick while taking “sick days” on Fridays and Mondays.
2. Minimum wage increase to more than $15 per hour, even though Oregon currently has the second-highest minimum wage in the country and built-in annual cost-of living-increases. There are studies that show the minimum wage does not necessarily help
those who are targeted, because it can lead to job loss and increased expenses in goods and services such as child care.
3. A state retirement fund for the private sector. This legislation will grow government, increase liability upon the employer and put government squarely in competition with the private sector offering these services. Additionally the new federal MyRA
program negates the need for a state-run program.
4. Forty proposed tax increases introduced by the House Revenue Committee such as:
• LC 356 – A 50 percent cut to all itemized deductions, including home mortgage deductions for low- and middle-income Oregonians
• LC 903 – Caps mortgage interest deduction at $10,000, even for middle-class Oregonians
• LC 332- Eliminates supermajority requirement for tax bills
• LC 321 – Allows cities to tax internet access
• LC 348 – Eliminates the individual income tax “kicker”
• LC 1674 – Raises taxes on job training non-profits, rural health-care facilities, pollution control facilities, TV and radio stations, housing for college students, farmland used for grazing, county fairgrounds, boats used as ferries, crab pots, Christmas trees, trees and shrubs, farm produce (even if donated to a food bank), farm machinery, small business inventory, and others
• LC 1683 – Rolls back part of the small business tax cut from the 2013 Grand Bargain, the largest tax cut for small business in Oregon history.
