Real Estate Trends with Duke Warner Realty, September 2014: Some Growing, Some Slowing

So, how are we doing in the local real estate market? Here is a summary of properties for September 2014.

	# of Active	# of New	# of Pending	# of Reduced	# of Sold	Avg Sale Price / List Price	Months of Inventory
Sept 2014	679	177	211	207	182	98%	6.2

These statistics are for Bend, OR residential properties on 1 acre.

At first glance, these statistics are looking good. Great even! 31% of active listings moved into pending status and 26 percent of listings moved into sold status. The average sales price to list price is an astounding 98 percent! And there is a healthy inventory of 6.2 months.
One thing to keep in mind is that when statistics are looked at in isolation, they represent just a snapshot of the market. To get an idea of what is happening in the market as a whole statistics should be compared over time.

Here is a summary of the remaining 3rd quarter months for 2014.

	# of Active	# of New	# of Pending	# of Reduced	# of Sold	Avg Sale Price / List Price	Months of Inventory
July 2014	633	303	262	174	235	99%	3.4
Aug 2014	660	273	243	226	222	99%	3.3

These statistics are for Bend, OR residential properties on 1 acre.

In reviewing statistics from the quarter as a whole, some trends start to emerge.

The market continues to grow in terms of active listings on the market. But there is a slowing of the number of listings coming on the market as new listings. July saw 303 new listings, August had 273 and September had 177. In turn there is a slowing of the listings going to pending status. July had 262, August had 243 and September had 211 listings moving to pending status. It would make sense then that the number of listings sold is seeing a descending trend as well with July at 235, August at 222 and September 182.

Does this mean that the real estate market is reversing momentum? While the statistics are indicating a slowing trend, it should be mentioned that a general slowing as the fall season hits is not uncommon. The historical height of the real estate market is the summer months. It is worth noting that while there is a slowing trend, there is not a large drop off in numbers. Instead the numbers remain relatively close one month over another.

If we look at the average sale price compared to list price, the percentage is still high. Only 1% separates September from July and August. With a growth in the number of active listings, but fewer new listings entering the market, pricing will pay a pivotal role. With the sales within 98% of the list price, pricing is still commanding an active response from buyers.

Another statistic supporting a healthy market marker is the increase of months of inventory to 6.2 months. This is closer to an industry recognized 6-8 months of inventory for a robust market in an area such as Central Oregon. When the market is in the 3-4 month range, it can lean toward a seller’s market and can affect pricing due to low availability of listings.

Markets always have some fluctuation. According to the numbers, sellers are offering appealing listings and buyers are continuing to make offers. So as we look at our real estate market over the 3rd quarter of 2014, our market is remaining healthy and dynamic.