Results from the latest monthly measurement of small business owners’ attitudes released today weren’t expected to surprise much, the Optimism Index recorded a 33rd consecutive month below its 50-year average, until one component, the Uncertainty Index, came in at a historic, eye-popping high, rising 11 points to 103.
“With elections right around the corner, there’s bound to be some level of uncertainty percolating among small business owners, but what we’re seeing right now is not your typical election season anxiety,” said Anthony Smith, Oregon state director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which produces the Optimism Index, also known as the Small Business Economic Trends report.
“There’s a massive federal tax increase set to automatically kick in on January 1, 2026, if Congress fails to act in the next 15 months. The Main Street Tax Certainty Act would address this problem by preserving the 20% Small Business Deduction, but what’s the likelihood of next year’s Congress and the executive branch working together to give small business owners the certainty and relief they’re looking for? Then there’s the Oregon Legislature, which is set to be back in session in January. If recent history is any indication of future priorities, small business owners can expect politicians in Salem to propose new taxes, new regulations, and policies that increase the cost of doing business in our state. They’re right to be worried – they’re paying attention.”
From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
“Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever. Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.”
Other Highlights from the Latest SBET Report
- The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 10.1%, up 0.6 of a point from August. The last time it was this high was February 200
- Thirty-four percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down six points from August and the lowest reading since January 2021.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 32% reported raising compensation, down one point from August and remaining the lowest reading since April 2021.
- Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), down one point from August but remaining the top issue.
NFIB’s monthly (SBET) report is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The SBET (aka the Optimism Index) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. More about the Uncertainty Index can be read here. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.
For 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.
