Who Says the Economy Isn’t Improving? Local Unemployment Rates Down

0

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates fell again in January in two of the three Central Oregon counties. The rate remained the same in Jefferson County. Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage point to 8.8 percent from December’s revised rate of 9.0 percent.

This release also summarizes the revised 2011 employment numbers due to the annual benchmarking process.

Crook County: In January, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 14.6 percent, the lowest since December 2008 (14.4%). The rate fell 0.7 percentage point from December’s revised rate. One year ago, in January 2011, the rate was 17.3 percent.

The county lost 150 jobs between December and January. Typically we expect a loss of 190 jobs, therefore there was a seasonally adjusted job gain of 40 jobs in January.

There were no private-sector industries that added jobs in January in Crook County. Overall private industries lost 120 jobs between December and January.

Federal government lost 30 jobs in January.

Compared to one year ago, in January 2011, the county had 250 additional jobs. Overall government added 170 jobs. Local government accounted for 150 of that employment increase. Private industries added 80 jobs over the year. Two industries posted annual job gains larger than 50 jobs: leisure and hospitality (+80) and professional and business services (+60).

Deschutes County (Bend MSA): The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Deschutes County fell to 11.6 percent which is the lowest rate since December 2008. One year ago, in January 2011, the rate was 13.9 percent.

The county lost 570 jobs between December and January. Typically, the county has a monthly loss of 2,160 jobs, thus there was a seasonally adjusted job gain of 1,590 jobs in Deschutes County in January.

There were three private-sector industries that posted over-the-month job gains: education and health services (+90); leisure and hospitality (+30); and durable goods manufacturing (+20).

Five private-sector industries reported employment loss in January: retail trade (-240); mining, logging, and construction (-190); financial activities (-20); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-10). Government lost 160 jobs in January.

This year in January, the county has 780 more jobs than it did one year ago (January 2011). The largest one-year employment increase was reported in accommodation and food services (+760). Manufacturing added 130 jobs. Education and health services added 120 jobs. The three industries that make up the trade, transportation, and utilities super-sector added 170 jobs. Two industries reported job losses: information (-110) and professional and business services (-110). Government added 10 jobs.

Jefferson County: In Jefferson County the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 12.7 percent in January. There was no change from December’s revised rate. One year ago the rate was 13.9 percent.

In January, the county lost 150 jobs. Typically the county looses 220 jobs this time of year. Therefore the county had a seasonally adjusted job gain of 70 jobs.

Local government posted the largest over-the-month losses in Jefferson County (-80), followed by leisure and hospitality (-30) and retail trade (-20).

Manufacturing (+10) and education and health services (+10) each posted small employment gains in January.

Over the last year, Jefferson County lost 90 jobs. Almost all of the jobs lost were in the private sector (-80). Government lost 10 jobs since January 2011.

2011 Annual Benchmark Revisions

Each year in March the Oregon Employment Department releases revised employment data by industry for prior years. The process updates the monthly industry employment estimates using data from businesses’ quarterly tax reports. The revision process results in more accurate data for each industry’s employment total.

For Oregon the revisions indicate that Oregon’s economy was a bit stronger in late 2010 that originally reported and a little bit weaker that originally reported for much of 2011. Conversely, the three counties in Central Oregon had upward revisions for 2011. The revisions for the three counties in Central Oregon are summarized below.

Crook County: The 2011 employment situation in Crook County was better than originally reported. Total nonfarm payroll employment was revised upwards by 340 jobs (6.6%), as shown in Table 1. The industry with the largest upward revision was construction (33.3%) followed by leisure and hospitality which was revised upwards by 70 jobs (14.6%). Financial activities was the only industry with lower employment than was originally reported. That figure was revised downward by 20 jobs (-11.8%).

Deschutes County (Bend MSA): The employment situation in Deschutes County (Bend MSA) was also better than originally reported. Total nonfarm payroll employment was 730 jobs (+1.2%) higher than reported in 2011, as shown in Table 2. The largest upward revision was mining, logging and construction (+12.2%). The largest downward revision was financial activities (-4.8%).

Jefferson County: As was the case in Crook and Deschutes counties, there was an upward revision in Jefferson County. Total nonfarm payroll was 100 jobs (1.8%) higher than originally reported, as shown in Table 3. The number of jobs in construction in the county was double the number originally reported. This was the industry with the largest revision. Mining and logging (-33.3%) and financial activities (-23.5%) had the largest downward revisions.

These estimates will be revised as new data from businesses becomes available. The next Central Oregon Employment Situation with preliminary data for February 2012 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday March 27, 2012.

Share.

About Author

Leave A Reply