2026 Central Oregon Economic Outlook

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Central Oregon is very well positioned for continued and steady economic growth. We have ready-to-go industrial and mixed-use land with infrastructure in most regional communities, representing future employment areas. We also have more housing options available for all income levels in our communities in a decade. And yes, there are some headwinds that can influence this growth, but there is nothing that can replace or deter the desire to live in our region and experience access to the outdoor opportunities we have.

Strengths:

1) Industrial land with infrastructure is now available in small and medium-sized parcels in all cities/towns in our region. This is our first ready-to-go industrial land available in all communities since 2013. Our regional private sector job creation slowed a little in 2024 and 2025, and we are now positioned to outpace the state in year-over-year growth for the next three to five years.

2) Birth Rates at St. Charles increased in 2025, which is bucking the State of Oregon and National trend. In our assessment, this milestone is a top-two regional asset, arguably the most important contender. Among many things and only to name a few, these numbers reflect future students for our schools, future registration fees for our DMV, future employees and innovators in our community, and future tax payers to generate revenue.

3) We have a newly created regional bipartisan Central Oregon Caucus composed of regional elected officials, and one of our very own Central Oregonians recently appointed to be the State’s Chief Prosperity Officer. This regional representation will certainly bring positive attention to our communities.

Headwinds:

1) Oregon is losing its competitive position nationally in areas related to business friendliness, the cost of being an employee, and the overall cost of living in our state. We are hopefully course correcting with the #3 strength above. We anticipate this will be a short-term trend, allowing the pendulum to swing back to Oregon’s historic strong position.

2) Oregon’s public education reputation is negatively impacting the recruitment of professional and STEM based organizations and employees. Both are critical to the future technical employment landscape that the State of Oregon and our region is working to create and expand. We are fortunate that Central Oregon has some of the best schools and teachers in the State, though the State’s reputation continues to influence recruitment and retention regardless.

Regional infrastructure investments over the past five years have positioned Central Oregon for strong, slightly more moderate growth in 2026. We are looking forward to an impactful 2026.

Matt Ertle grew up in Central Oregon and is committed to supporting our employment and workforce communities through local and regional strategic partnerships.

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