(Graphs courtesy of Oregon Employment Department)
Health Care, Demographics & the Future of Employment
Central Oregon has experienced strong job growth over the last two decades. Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment increased from an average of 66,204 jobs in 2001 to an average of 111,284 jobs in 2024 (as of November), marking an almost 70% increase. This growth has not been uniform across all sectors, time periods, or counties. While much of this job growth has been driven by Deschutes County, both Jefferson and Crook counties have also contributed to regional employment gains.
The Great Recession caused significant job losses, particularly in construction and manufacturing. During this period, total nonfarm seasonally adjusted jobs fell by approximately 17% from peak to trough. The recovery was gradual, and by the mid-2010s, employment would surpass pre-recession levels.
Recent Job Growth Slowed and was Concentrated in a Few Sectors
More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labor markets globally, including in Central Oregon. Employment dropped sharply in 2020 but rebounded by late 2021 — a stark contrast to the protracted recovery from the Great Recession. By 2023, total nonfarm employment had not only recovered but reached new highs. However, employment growth has slowed recently, with most gains concentrated within private education and health services, particularly health care and social assistance, which grew by 8.7% from November 2023 to November 2024.
This trend mirrors the state-level pattern, where health care and social assistance accounted for the vast majority of total employment growth year-over-year, adding 18,100 jobs between December 2023 and December 2024. In fact, health care and social assistance has been a significant driver of Central Oregon’s labor market, growing by almost 180% between 2001 and the third quarter of 2024, a net gain of nearly 11,100 jobs. A value I don’t expect to change by much once annual data comes out. Furthermore, projections indicate an additional 2,190 jobs in health care and social assistance in Central Oregon by 2033, reflecting a growth rate of nearly 14% during this period.
An Aging Population Will Impact Future Job Growth
The region’s demographic composition will play a crucial role in shaping future trends. A growing and aging population is expected to drive sustained demand for health care services in the coming years. For instance, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019-2023 American Community Survey, Crook County has a median age of 47.7 years, with 40% of its population aged 55 or older. This figure is higher than in Deschutes (42.6 years) and Jefferson (41.3 years) counties.
In aggregate, nearly 35% of Central Oregon residents are aged 55 or older. This demographic shift poses challenges as more individuals reach retirement age, particularly in rural areas where populations tend to skew older and attracting health care workers is more difficult. As this cohort ages, increased demand on the regional health care system will most likely be seen, and the aging workforce itself presents challenges. In 2024, approximately 23.1% of the region’s workforce was 55 years or older, suggesting that many may retire within the next decade, further straining workforce replacement needs.
Jefferson County presents a unique case with a relatively young median age of 41.3 years and a higher proportion of individuals under 20 (25%) compared to the other two counties. Consequently, its workforce is limited by both an aging population and a younger population with low labor force participation rates that will require training to meet future workforce needs.
As we look ahead, health care and social assistance is projected to remain a key driver of employment growth. The sector’s expansion is expected to outpace overall job growth in Central Oregon (+9%), potentially accounting for an even larger share of the region’s employment in the coming years. The industry and occupational projections for Central Oregon align closely with the demographic trends observed in the population data. Furthermore, in terms of occupational growth, by 2033 health care occupations are projected to add the third-highest number of jobs in absolute terms, with an estimated 1,573 new positions.
This includes growth in roles such as registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and medical assistants. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are expected to grow by 14.8%, adding 912 new jobs, while total health care job growth is forecasted to be slightly stronger at 15.4%, surpassing the overall expected occupational growth of 8.6% during this ten-year period. But growth doesn’t tell the full story – the majority of projected job openings in health care (9,639) will be replacement openings due to factors such as retirement and career changes, and this holds true across all occupational groups and industries.
Non-Health Care Sectors Still Set to Grow
While health care dominates the conversation, it is important to also acknowledge other significant sectors and occupations. Construction, which experienced dramatic swings during the housing boom of the mid-2000s and subsequent bust during the Great Recession, rebounded strongly after 2010. With population growth fueling demand for housing and infrastructure, construction is projected to grow by 13.5% between 2023 and 2033, adding approximately 1,170 jobs. This includes expected growth in roles such as carpenters (+12.9%), construction laborers (+17.7%), and electricians (+22.1%).
Professional and business services is also expected to see some of the strongest growth in the region, with a projected increase of 12.6%, adding around 1,470 jobs by 2033. Growth in this industry has been driven by professional, scientific, and technical services, a trend likely to continue into the future. This industry has demonstrated steady growth, rising from 8% of total employment in 2021 to around 12% in 2024, an increase of 4 percentage points.
Central Oregon Labor Market Remains Tight
Despite being one of the fastest-growing regions in the state, Central Oregon’s labor market has remained tight, marked by low unemployment rates. As of November 2024, Deschutes County reported an unemployment rate of 4.0%, while Jefferson County came in at 4.7%, and Crook County was 5.5% which is on the lower end for the county. Although it may not seem like it there has been a slight easing of the labor market — statewide, there are now about 1.6 unemployed individuals per job vacancy, up from a ratio of 1 or lower in recent years — high-demand sectors like health care continue to struggle with staffing shortages.
Unless there is something like a significant market disruption that increases the number of unemployed individuals, workers will retain some degree of bargaining power in high-demand roles where the demand for employees exceeds supply. This is evident in job vacancy trends across Oregon. A prime example is the health care sector. In summer 2024, health care and social assistance vacancies accounted for 42% of all vacancies statewide, translating to 25,400 openings. The persistence of statewide job vacancies within high-growth industries like health care also points towards the challenges Central Oregon and the wider region may face in meeting workforce demand in key industries and occupations.
Though East Cascades 2024 Job Vacancy data are not yet available, they are likely to provide a more representative picture of the current demand for workers in Central Oregon and align better with forecasted employment growth in the region. Nonetheless, the prevailing situation across Oregon provides valuable insights into the labor market variables at play, where a relatively low number of unemployed individuals per available job vacancy suggests that certain industries will continue to struggle with workforce shortages despite, or in light of, population growth and an aging workforce. Some areas, like Deschutes County, may fare better since Bend attracts more prime-age (25-54) workers and people in general, but strong population growth also means more demand on local resources, and as of late, the three Central Oregon counties have seen some of the fastest population growth in Oregon.
