The California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting presented its 3rd Quarter Oregon Economic Forecast.
· Oregon’s economy is forecast to grow very slowly throughout the remainder of 2011 and achieve solid 3 percent growth only in 2012.
· Job growth will likely be more anemic, implying that the forecasted economic growth will be driven mostly by continued gains in productivity.
· While state foreclosures and delinquencies show some signs of declining, they remain at extraordinary levels. Prices are generally still declining. This indicates that the transition to the new equilibrium still has a way to go. Most Oregon residential markets will remain soft throughout the forecast horizon.
·The potential failure to increase the debt ceiling and the possibility of government defaults at state and local levels could have serious impacts.
· A double dip is not the most likely outcome, but the prospects of one are increasing and the risks are serious.