Oregon’s Unemployment Rate Essentially Unchanged in July

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Over the past five months payroll employment has been nearly flat. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment rose 300 in July, following a revised gain of 300 in June. Between February and July, this measure of employment is up only 400 jobs, following strong gains totaling 22,800 during the prior four-month period of October through February.

Over the past four months, seasonally adjusted private employment expanded by 7,300 jobs, while government declined by 4,900.

In July, most of the major industries experienced close to the normal seasonal employment hiring patterns. Leisure and hospitality stood out, showing a substantial seasonally adjusted

gain as it added 2,000 jobs. Several industries posted relatively large seasonally adjusted job losses: government (-900 jobs), educational and health services (-900), and other services (-1,500).

Seasonal Expectations and Over-the-Month Employment Changes June to July 2011
INDUSTRY	Normal Seasonal Movement	Unadjusted Change	Seasonally Adjusted Change
Total nonfarm payroll employment	-20,000	-19,700	300
Total private	8,900	10,100	1,200
Mining and logging	200	400	200
Construction	2,400	3,000	600
Manufacturing	2,600	2,700	100
Trade, transportation, and utilities	900	1,500	600
Information	0	400	400
Financial activities	700	200	-500
Professional and business services	1,300	1,500	200
Educational and health services	-2,400	-3,300	-900
Leisure and hospitality	2,900	4,900	2,000
Other services	300	-1,200	-1,500
Government	-28,900	-29,800	-900

Revisions to the June payroll data were minor overall, with total nonfarm payroll employment now showing a gain of 300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to the originally reported gain of 800 jobs. Two major industries posted noteworthy revisions. Construction is now seen as gaining 1,400 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, compared with the originally reported gain of only 200. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality didn’t grow as fast as originally estimated. Revised figures indicate it added 3,200 seasonally adjusted jobs in June, when a gain of 4,400 was originally reported.

Government employment dropped by 29,800 jobs in July, which was 900 more than the normal seasonal movement. School closures for the summer were the primary reason for the monthly decline. Many local school districts reported lower employment levels this July compared to July 2010. These declines led to a 4.6 percent drop in local education employment, which was 3,700 jobs below its year-ago figure. Federal government added 400 jobs in July as the busy summer season for federal agencies with an emphasis on the outdoors took hold. Comparisons with last year are skewed by the federal temporary Census workers that numbered 2,700 in July 2010. Excluding the effect of these workers, federal government is up 500 since July 2010.

Educational and health services normally is expected to cut 2,400 jobs due to seasonal factors in July. This July, it cut 3,300. Much of the reduction in jobs was due to private educational services, which shed 2,500 jobs for the month. Despite the one-month cut, this industry is still up 1,400 jobs from July 2010. Meanwhile, health services cut 800 jobs, which was only half its typical job decline for July. Since July 2010, each of the four components of health care and social assistance added between 1,200 and 1,400 jobs.

Other services lost 1,200 jobs in July, when a gain of 300 is the normal seasonal pattern. The employment estimates from the payroll survey indicate a declining trend in this industry for the year. Since July 2010, its component industries saw these job reductions: repair and maintenance (-300 jobs), personal and laundry services (-600), and membership associations and organizations (‑1,500).

Construction pulled up from its recent lows of 2010. In July, it added 3,000 workers at a time of year when a gain of 2,400 was expected due to seasonal factors. Coupled with the upward revision to June’s construction employment figures, the industry appears to be gradually rebounding from its lows of last year. Seasonally adjusted employment in construction reached 70,700 in July, which was 4,300 above its recent low point of 66,400 in September 2010. The last time construction was above 70,700 was in September 2009, when it employed 71,000.

Hours and Earnings

(Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for Oregon manufacturing production workers was 38.8 hours in July, a drop from 39.8 in June. This measure of the workweek has generally trended higher over the past two years and is up from the July 2010 figure of 38.5 hours.

Average earnings of all private-sector payroll employees in Oregon edged up to $21.62 per hour in July from $21.53 in June. The July figure was up 7 cents per hour, or 0.3 percent, from July 2010.

Unemployment

(Household Survey Data)

The national unemployment rate was 9.1 percent in July and 9.2 percent in June. Oregon’s July rate of 9.5 percent was 0.4 percentage point above the U.S. rate. The difference between the Oregon and the U.S. unemployment rates was not statistically significant.

Seasonally adjusted employment, as measured by the household survey, declined in July for the second consecutive month. It was down 4,611 between May and July. This small loss followed rapid employment gains totaling 26,388 individuals during the first five months of the year.

In July, 189,501 Oregonians were unemployed. This is 21,148 fewer individuals than in July 2010 when 210,649 Oregonians were unemployed.

Please note that this press release contains information from two separate surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey. The establishment survey produces a monthly jobs total, while the household survey produces an employment total. Over the short term of one to several months, these two surveys can produce differing trends. There are several reasons that can cause these dissimilar readings of Oregon’s economy including different entities being sampled and different definitions of what is being estimated. For the July data, both surveys indicated that Oregon’s overall employment trend was close to flat: The establishment survey portrayed minimal jobs expansion, while the household survey indicated a slight employment decline.