Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, reports that despite the government shut-down employment rose in October.
“In spite of the ‘government shut-down,’ employment rose among small firms in October. NFIB owners reversed September’s trend of job loss adding an average of 0.11 workers per firm.
Twelve percent of the owners (up 1 point) reported adding an average of 3.5 workers per firm over the past few months. Offsetting that, 9 percent reduced employment (down 2 points) an average of 2.8 workers (seasonally adjusted), producing the seasonally adjusted gain of 0.11 employees per firm overall. The remaining 79 percent of owners made no net change in employment. Fifty-one (51) percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 40 percent (78 percent of those trying to hire or hiring) reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions.
“Reports of workforce reductions have reached sub-normal levels, explaining the favorable levels of initial claims for unemployment. Nine percent reported reducing employment, the lowest reading since 2006. But owners report sub-par levels of hiring, so job growth remains anemic even with low levels of initial claims.“Twenty-one percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period (up 1 point), a positive signal for the unemployment rate.
Fifteen (15) percent reported using temporary workers, up 1 point from September. Unfortunately, job creation plans lost 4 points from September, landing at a net 5 percent, no surprise given a rather negative outlook for future business conditions. Not seasonally adjusted, 11 percent plan to increase employment at their firm (down 2 points), and 12 percent plan reductions (up 3 points).
Only the Central states showed positive job creation plans (‘energy states’) and job creation plans were very negative in New England.“With uncertainty mounting and another round of politics coming with the January 15 deadline, owners are not enthusiastic about the prospects for the economy and sales growth, a producing a poor outlook for job creation.” www.NFIB.com/newsroom.
