Real Estate Trends With Duke Warner

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To List or Not to List NOW? That is the question. It is often thought that winter is the “quiet season” for selling a house. According to Duke Warner Real Estate statistics, aggregated directly from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for Central Oregon, the number of property listings in Bend fell by 30 active listings between November 2013 and December 2013 and the number of listings sold dropped by 13. 


December 2013: Residential property on <1 acre

Price Range

Active Listings

New Listings

Pending Listings

Months of Inventory

$125,000-$225,000

71

26

32

1.6

$225,100-$325,000

211

21

35

4.0

$325,100-$425,000

61

16

17

2.7

$425,100-$525,000

52

12

4

4.3

$525,100-$625,000

28

2

5

2.5

$625,100 & Up

90

7

4

12.9

Totals/Averages

513

84

97

4.7

If you are considering putting your house on the market, this data may initially look like a downturn in activity and make you think about waiting until spring. But let’s look at another statistic: Months of Inventory (MOI) reflects the amount of time it would take for the current active listings to sell, taking into account the current sales pace.

The Months of Inventory (MOI) for December was 4.7—this means that if no other listings came on the market, it would take an average of 4.7 months for all the active listings (all 513 listings as of December) to sell.

4.7 months may seem like a long time, but it is statistically quite short. In a healthy market, the expected average months of inventory is 6 months; that reflects a balanced market between buying and selling. As Bend is often referred to as a resort town (meaning there are a higher number of second homes and vacation rental homes), the expected average months of inventory is 8 months. So an MOI rate of 4.7 is much less than the expected average of 6 months, and well below the 8 months expected for resort towns.

Does this mean all homes are expected to take 4.6 months to sell? Let’s look deeper at the numbers. The months of inventory by price range tells a very interesting story. 

Yes, your pricing does matter. Homes in the $265,100-$325,000 range (4.0 months) and in the $425,100-$525,000 range (4.3 months) are closest to the overall average (4.7 months). If your range is $625,100 and up, you have a longer-than-expected wait. That range is currently at 12.9 months. Since this range goes into the million dollar and above bracket, it makes sense that those properties are often highly specialized and would take longer to find the right buyer.

The $325,100-$425,000 range is at 2.7 months, and the $525,100-$625,000 range is 2.5 months. Now that’s even better! That is very low in comparison to the balanced market average of 6 months.If your price range is $125,000-$225,000 the months of inventory is all the way down to 1.6 months. This number is incredible! This price range is moving very quickly.

So while actual new listings and properties sold have dipped a bit in December, it is still a great time to market your property, especially for the up to $625,100 price range. The statistics show that the Bend market remains strong and on the rise. It turns out winter is not such a quiet time in the Bend market after all!

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