The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October was 97.8, down 0.1 points from September and slightly below the 53-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell six points from September to 84, the lowest level since December 2025.
“There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Even with inflation pressures continuing to strain operations, more Main Street owners reported their businesses in good or excellent health, and actual sales improved. Looking ahead, continued strength in consumer spending will support economic growth, while persistent inflation, labor shortages, and policy risks will weigh on the small business outlook.”
Added Anthony Smith, state director for NFIB in Oregon, “The October Optimism Index was largely unremarkable. Small businesses are still struggling with inflation and labor issues but are starting to worry a bit more about taxes too. The big unknown is how they will respond to last week’s election results. We’ll know the answer to that question by this time next month.”
Key findings of the October survey include:
- The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The current reading is 13 points above the historical average of 12%.
- The second top issue in October was taxes, which rose notably from September. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up ten points from September and the highest level since May 2021.
- Small business owners’ self-evaluation of the health of their business shifted positively, with more reporting their business as excellent and good rather than fair. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 15% rated it as excellent (up two points), 54% as good (up six points), 26% as fair (down nine points), and four percent as poor (unchanged).
- In October, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up two points from September and still above its average.
- Eleven percent (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up four points from September.
- A seasonally adjusted 36% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up four points from September and 12 points above the historical average.
- Inflation pressures grew in October as both price measures increased. A seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising average selling prices (up two points), and a net 37% plan to increase prices, up six points from September and the highest level since July 2022.
Click here to view the entire NFIB SBET Report.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in October 2026.
