A new Clout Research telephone poll of likely General Election voters shows them leaning toward defeating a statewide tax measure known as Measure 97, or M97.
The recent survey shows 41 percent of likely voters favor passage of the measure, while 46 percent would vote against it. Another 13 percent of the statewide electorate said they are yet unsure about the measure.
Among Democrats statewide, 57 percent favor passage of the tax measure, while 29 percent of Democrats oppose it and 34 percent are unsure. Both Republicans and independent voters are against it, as just 23 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of independent voters support it. Among the GOP respondents, 69 percent said they are against passage of this tax measure.
The measure cuts right along ideological lines, as the more liberal the respondent, the more likely they are to support the measure. Among very liberal Oregon voters, 66 percent support M97, but only 12 percent of those who self-identified as “very conservative” support its passage.
Those respondents in households that include a member of a public sector, or government, union strongly supported the measure at a clip of 65 percent support, but majorities of voters in households that include a private-sector union member opposed the new tax. Among those in trade unions, 53 percent opposed the measure, while 56 percent of those with a member of a service sector union in the household opposed M97. A plurality of 47 percent of those who have no union membership in their household also opposed the measure, while 38 percent of non-union respondents supported passage of M97.
The Clout survey showed quite a disparity between the genders, as a majority of men opposed the measure, but a plurality of women supported it. Among men, 51 percent opposed it, while 35 percent supported it. Among women, 47 percent supported it, while 40 percent opposed it.
Intensity of the support and opposition on the measure is interesting. While 29 percent “strongly favor” passage, 34 percent “strongly oppose” it. Since undecided voters on the question, this late in the election process, are unlikely to form an intense opinion on the issue, it appears those opposing the tax measure are likely in the driver’s seat on this question. Of course, last-minute campaign developments can always color the outcome on questions like this.
Q: On the ballot in November will be Measure 97, or M97, which is an initiative that increases the corporate minimum tax in Oregon when sales exceed $25 million. The initiative is estimated to raise roughly $5 billion in revenue each biennium and will fund education, healthcare and senior services. Do you intend to vote in favor of this measure, against the measure, or are you unsure?
STRONGLY FAVOR: 28.9 percent
SOMEWHAT FAVOR: 12.2 percent
TOTAL YES: 41.1 percent
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE: 12.1 percent
STRONGLY OPPOSE: 34.1 percent
TOTAL NO: 46.2 percent
NOT SURE: 12.7 percent
TOTAL: 100 percent
Respectfully/FW
Clout Research is a leading opinion research company established in 2005 and working nationwide with clients in politics, business, media, government, and the non-profit sectors. It conducted a survey of Oregonians statewide October 20-21, 2016, regarding political issues. The telephone survey, which included interviews with likely voters in landline and cell phone-only households, included 928 respondents. It carries a confidence interval of 95 percent and a margin of error of +/- 3.22 percentage points.
