Part 1 — The Sansdemic, our nationwide workforce shortage
In 2018 employers started feeling the impacts of workforce shortages across most industry segments. This was the early stage of a long-forecasted labor shortage known as the Sansdemic that was first reported in the 1990s. It is the basic result of our aging workforce, the Baby Boomers, retiring at faster rates than what our birth rates every generation since the Baby Boomers could replace. “Where have all the good ones gone” was the general sentiment expressed by employers in our region and nationwide in trying to reconcile why positions went unfilled for so long.
From a macro perspective, the workforce shortage remains today and will for at least another ten years. More details about this specific shortage can be found under the Sansdemic research that is now widely published and acutely known by most executive teams, business owners and anyone involved in workforce planning.
Part 2 — As Portland goes, so does the State of Oregon… except for Central Oregon
Oregon’s overall year-over-year population started to decline in 2022 as did the population of the greater Portland area. Economists have long explained that “as Portland goes, so does the State of Oregon” to summarize our collective statewide trends related to economic expectations.
Central Oregon is the exception as it relates to population changes. While Portland and Oregon have both seen population declines, Central Oregon has seen our population increase. This is great for our region and illustrates the long-range strategic planning by our local municipalities, economic development partners and the overall strong desire to live in our region that drives people and households to relocate to our area.
There are currently no economic or demographic indicators that predict a population decline in Central Oregon.
Part 3 — The remote workforce
Central Oregon was an economic and population Boomtown from 2014 to 2019. During this period, we also started to increase our remote workforce that accounted for 10-12% of the total workforce population before 2020, to a percentage averaging at over 15% during the COVID pandemic and also years following in 2020-2023. Bend and Deschutes County specifically were often included in the published “Zoomtown” lists that identified desirable destinations for remote working.
Remote work opportunities have remained for a large percentage in our community, although the return-to-office (RTO) trend started to eliminate some of these remote employment opportunities in our region beginning in 2024 and continuing throughout 2025. Former remote working community members are then left trying to replace their income through another remote job opportunity which have become increasingly scarce or secure local employment options in the Central Oregon region. Many people in the workforce that are forced into this transition cannot find replacement incomes locally that are adequate to remain in Central Oregon. These people are asking the same question about jobs as employers ask about employees, which is “where have all the good ones gone?”
Part 4 — The Central Oregon conundrum and solutions
Central Oregon arguably has one of the best workforces in our state and country. We also arguably have some of the best employers and job opportunities in our state and country. We certainly have more today of both than in the history of our region. How do we solve the conundrum between job availability and talent available? We need more of both.
We need more people in Central Oregon that will, want and are able to participate in the local workforce. And we need more jobs that are good and high(er) paying than what we currently have. Our region will get continuously better at both, it simply feels like it doesn’t happen fast enough for some.
We expect the topic of how we achieve growing both our local workforce and local job opportunities will be one of the primary community conversations that dominates our region for the next several years to come.
