Main Street’s outlook on the economy is on the rise, according to today’s release of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which increased 2.4 points in July to 99.8, coming in above its 52-year average of 98.0. This marks the highest level since August 2025.
“Nationally, small business owners are looking to hire and invest in their businesses, which is a great sign and a major reason overall optimism is now hovering just above the historic average,” said Anthony Smith state director for NFIB in Oregon. “But here in Oregon, our less-than-friendly business climate drives up costs and stifles employment opportunities for Oregonians, which is evident from our worst-in-the-nation unemployment rate.”
From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
“Small business optimism rose again in July, with a significant increase in owners expecting to hire, accompanied by an improvement in plans to make capital expenditures. Although uncertainty is currently elevated, Main Street anticipates that business conditions will continue to improve.”
Highlights from the July SBET Include:
- In July, the top reported issue was labor quality or availability. Twenty-seven percent of small business owners cited “labor quality or availability” as their single most important problem in July, up 8 points from June and 15 points above the historical average of 12%.
- Looking ahead, a seasonally adjusted net 20% of owners plan to create new jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June. Hiring plans are at their highest level since October 2022 and are 9 points above the historical average.
- In July, both actual and planned price increases dropped notably from June. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points from June to a net 31% (seasonally adjusted), after four consecutive months of increases. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June.
- Reports of inflation as the single most important problem fell for the first time this year. Fourteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, down 7 points from June’s highest reading since October 2024.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
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