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— Part 1 of 4 —
Everyone by now is familiar with Artificial Intelligence (AI), but even the experts in the field are still grappling with its potentials and impact on society. All tech trends this column has or will cover have AI in the mix. Just about every conceivable industry or market segment will be dramatically transformed by AI.
We’ll break down this topic into easily understandable terms in four consecutive articles:
- Part 1 — What Is It and Why Should We Care
- Part 2 — Personal Impact — how AI impacts Jane and Joe Public
- Part 3 — Business Impact — how AI impacts businesses and financial markets
- Part 4 — Society Impact — the massive impact — and required transformation — of governments and society
What Is It
AI is simply a machine which emulates some of our human traits such as learning and problem-solving and can take action without human assistance. It’s “artificial” because it is “machine intelligence” instead of biological/human.
At the core of AI is the use of algorithms which are basically “a set of instructions, typically to solve a class of problems or perform a computation” (src: Wikipedia.org).
The core elements are data input, data analysis, learnings from the data, store what is learned, then AI checks if the its purpose or task can be completed or repeat until the task is accomplished.
There are four levels of AI (src: Arend Hintze):
- Reactive Machines AI — Ones that only react to the current world around it, with no memories — systems like IBM Deep Blue which beat world chess champions and Google AlphaGo which beat the world’s GO champions.
- Limited Memory AI — Uses memory to learn and improve its responses — most AI systems fall into this category
- Theory of Mind AI — Understands the needs of other intelligent entities — we’re on the verge of such systems now
- Self-aware AI — Has human-like intelligence and self-awareness — renowned futurist Ray Kurtzweil predicts this will happen by 2029. SkyNet in the Terminator series, The Matrix in the Matrix film series.
AI Eras
Ancient History — AI is not a new concept and history is filled with stories of early predecessors to modern AI. The ancient Greeks claimed Hephaestus built fully autonomous golden robots. In India in the 4th century B.C., King Ajatasatru commissioned the construction of “spirit movement machines” (i.e. autonomous robots) to protect Buddha’s remains in his underground burial chamber.
Twentieth Century — In the early 1950’s, scientists banded together from different disciplines to create an artificial brain. This was the rebirth of AI in modern times. The ultimate test for AI was the Turing Test devised by Alan Turing in 1950. The test’s purpose was to see if a thinking machine was indistinguishable from a human’s ability to communicate and reason. If a human could not tell the difference, it passed. Although the creators of two “chatbots” recently claimed to have passed the Turing Test, it’s widely accepted that, to-date, no AI system has.
Today — We’ve seen massive advancements in AI capabilities approaching AI level-4, “Theory of Mind”. On June 24, 2019, the first-ever AI simulation of the entire universe was created, but the researchers don’t know how the AI did it. “It’s like teaching image-recognition software with lots of pictures of cats and dogs, but then it’s able to recognize elephants,” says Shirley Ho, theoretical astrophysicist at the Center for Computational Astrophysics in NYC and co-author of the study. Many AI systems are now learning on their own, “unsupervised” by humans. Google Translate uses unsupervised learning, with billions of transactions and iterations in its learning algorithms. It can translate between two languages even though it hasn’t been trained to do so. It came up with its own common language, although one which humans can’t read, understand or use. Only the AI understands its version of the “Rosetta Stone”.
Economical fusion Power has been just beyond our grasp since fusion research started in the 1940’s. Now a company called TAE Technologies is working with Google to embed AI in its pursuit of practical, operational fusion power. As part of implementing AI, TAE is using Google’s “Optometrist” machine learning algorithm to find the perfect combination of thousands of variables which will produce the desired results, generating substantially more power than fusion consumes.
Why Should We Care
Where Is AI Used
It’s much easier to say where it isn’t. AI has yet to compare with a human’s creative, out-of-the-box thinking, ideation, dreaming and intuitive abilities. However, advances in AI are moving faster than even AI researchers can keep track of. They’re occurring in universities, government research facilities, corporations and hobbyists in their garages. AI is being embedded in virtually every industry, market, service, software system, communication device, military hardware, vehicles, medical systems/devices and a million other areas. Level 4, self-aware AI, isn’t here yet but it’s within a decade or so.
Upside
AI is improving our lives daily in just about every conceivable way. Right now, it’s being implemented to improve timing of street lights, map optimal routes in programs like Google Maps, predict power usage and adjusting the power grid, predict weather patterns, identify terrorist threats, prevent auto collisions, enable drone deliveries, diagnose illnesses and genetic disorders, match people on online dating sites, and thousands other applications.
It’s allowing robots to do the kind of jobs humans don’t want, can’t do or considered dangerous. AI is coordinating hundreds of thousands of robots in heavy-lift jobs in Amazon warehouses. Autonomous robotic vehicles are now weeding fields without the use of pesticides. AI, combined with x-ray and robotics, automates meat processing plants, like disassembling lamb and hog carcasses based on each unique size, weight and bone structure. No more humans wielding butcher knives and saws in messy factories.
Concerns
Behind just about every concern is a core nightmare. If AI can do things better, faster, cheaper and things humans never could, then where does that leave us? How do we make a living? What’s left for humans to do? Will corporations consist of a small core of staff watching over AI-enabled systems and robots? How will city, county, state and federal governments generate the revenue to function? Will AI/robots be the new taxpayers and humanity’s only job is to consume whatever they make? Will wars be fought by machines and humanity seen as just collateral damage?
Next Month’s Column: Artificial Intelligence — Part 2 of 4 — Personal Impact
Find Out More
http://bit.ly/wiki-AI-History ; http://bit.ly/wiki-AI ; http://bit.ly/wiki-Turing-Test ; http://bit.ly/LiveSci-4-types-of-AI ; http://bit.ly/Phys-Org-AI-Sim-Universe ; http://bit.ly/New-Sci-Ggl-Xlate-Creates-Language ; http://bit.ly/The-Verge-Fusion-AI
Preston Callicott is CEO of Five Talent Software, Inc. based in Bend, Oregon. His hope is writing articles such as this one will allow his mind to stop waking him up at 4am with “aha’s” and “oh-my’s” about the massive impact tech has on our collective future.
